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House Prices and Inventory

Watching existing home “for sale” inventory is very helpful. As an example, the increase in inventory in late 2005 helped me call the top for housing.And the decrease in inventory eventually helped me correctly call the bottom for house prices in early 2012, see: The Housing Bottom is Here.And in…

House Prices and Inventory

"Chicago Fed National Activity Index Points to an Uptick in Economic Growth in January"

From the Chicago Fed: Chicago Fed National Activity Index Points to an Uptick in Economic Growth in JanuaryThe Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to –0.25 in January from –0.51 in December. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from December, but only one…

"Chicago Fed National Activity Index Points to an Uptick in Economic Growth in January"

Quarterly Starts by Purpose and Design

Along with the monthly housing starts for January last week, the Census Bureau released Quarterly Starts by Purpose and Design through Q4 2019.This graph shows the NSA quarterly intent for four start categories since 1975: single family built for sale, owner built (includes contractor built for owner), starts built for…

Quarterly Starts by Purpose and Design

Schedule for Week of February 23, 2020

The key reports this week are January New Home sales and the second estimate of Q4 GDP.Other key reports include Case-Shiller house prices and Personal Income and Outlays for January.For manufacturing, the February Dallas, Richmond and Kansas City manufacturing surveys will be released.—– Monday, Feb 24th —–8:30 AM ET: Chicago…

Schedule for Week of February 23, 2020

Comments on January Existing Home Sales

Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.46 million in JanuaryA few key points:1) Existing home sales were up 9.6% year-over-year (YoY) in January.2) Inventory is very low, and was down 10.7% year-over-year (YoY) in January.   Inventory always decreases sharply in December as people take their homes off the market…

Comments on January Existing Home Sales

Q1 GDP Forecasts: 0.7% to 2.6%

From Merrill Lynch: We are tracking 0.7% qoq saar for 1Q GDP and 2.0% for 4Q. [Feb 21 estimate]emphasis addedFrom Goldman Sachs: we raised our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +1.5%. [Feb 19 estimate]From the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.0%…

Q1 GDP Forecasts: 0.7% to 2.6%

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.46 million in January

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Drop 1.3% in JanuaryExisting-home sales declined in January, continuing a fluctuating pattern of monthly increases and declines, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Significant declines in the West region dragged down nationwide numbers, with the other three major U.S. regions reporting marginal – or…

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.46 million in January

Friday: Existing Home Sales

Friday:• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for January from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.45 million SAAR, down from 5.54 million.Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 5.42 million SAAR.

Friday: Existing Home Sales

Phoenix Real Estate in January: Sales up 18.1% YoY, Active Inventory Down 38.9% YoY

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (“Stats Report”):1) Overall sales were at 6,328 in January, down from 7,585 in December, but up from 5,357 in January 2019. Sales…

Phoenix Real Estate in January: Sales up 18.1% YoY, Active Inventory Down 38.9% YoY

Black Knight’s First Look: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in January, Lowest Level on Record

From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: Mortgage Delinquencies Fall to Lowest Level on Record; January Sees Strongest Decline in More Than a Year • Mortgage delinquencies fell by more than 5% in January, hitting their lowest level on record dating back to 2000• January’s 14% year-over-year decline is the…

Black Knight’s First Look: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in January, Lowest Level on Record

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