Musing About Economics, Computers and Technology

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Tuesday: NY Fed Mfg

Tuesday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for October. The consensus is for a reading of 0.8, down from 2.0.

Tuesday: NY Fed Mfg

Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust

Way back in 2005, I posted a graph of the Real Estate Agent Boom. Here is another update to the graph.The graph shows the number of real estate licensees in California.The number of agents peaked at the end of 2007 (housing activity peaked in 2005, and prices in 2006). The…

Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust

Oil Prices

From Reuters: Oil falls due to caution over first phase of U.S.-China trade dealOil prices fell more than 2% on Monday as scant details about the first phase of a trade deal between the United States and China undercut optimism over a U.S.-Sino thaw that had helped lift crude markets…

Oil Prices

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of October 13, 2019Monday:• Columbus Day Holiday: Banks will be closed in observance of Columbus Day. The stock market will be open. No economic releases are scheduled.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P 500 are up 10 and DOW futures are up 107 (fair value).Oil…

Sunday Night Futures

U.S. Heavy Truck Sales down 5% Year-over-year in September

The following graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the September 2019 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR).Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand in May 2009, on a seasonally adjusted annual…

U.S. Heavy Truck Sales down 5% Year-over-year in September

Schedule for Week of October 13, 2019

The key economic reports this week are September Housing Starts and Retail Sales.For manufacturing, September Industrial Production, and the October New York and Philly Fed surveys, will be released this week.—– Monday, Oct 14th —–Columbus Day Holiday: Banks will be closed in observance of Columbus Day. The stock market will…

Schedule for Week of October 13, 2019

Sacramento Housing in September: Sales Up 5.7% YoY, Active Inventory DOWN 24% YoY

From SacRealtor.org: Sales volume declines for September, median sale price flatSeptember closed with 1,393 sales, an 11.1% decrease from August’s 1,567 sales. Compared to September 2018 (1,318), the current figure is up 5.7%. …The Active Listing Inventory decreased slightly from 2,460 to 2,457 units. The Months of Inventory increased from…

Sacramento Housing in September: Sales Up 5.7% YoY, Active Inventory DOWN 24% YoY

Q3 GDP Forecast: Just Undex 2%

From Merrill Lynch: Misses in construction spending and trade coupled with negative revisions to capex data sliced 0.3pp from 3Q GDP tracking this week, leaving us at 1.6% qoq saar. [Oct 11 estimate]emphasis addedFrom the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.0% for 2019:Q3 and…

Q3 GDP Forecast: Just Undex 2%

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased in September

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Posts Gain in SeptemberThe Dodge Momentum Index moved 4.1% higher in September to 143.6 (2000=100) from the revised August reading of 137.9. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Data & Analytics, is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential…

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased in September

House Prices to National Average Wage Index

One of the metrics we’d like to follow is a ratio of house prices to incomes. Unfortunately most income data is released with a significantly lag, and there are always questions about which income data to use (the average total income is skewed by the income of a few people).And…

House Prices to National Average Wage Index

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