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FOMC Preview

The consensus is the FOMC will cut the Fed Funds rate 25 bps to a range of 1.75% to 2.0% at the meeting this week.  A 50 bps cut is not impossible, but seems unlikely at this meeting.A key will be if the FOMC signals another rate cut in October. …

FOMC Preview

Schedule for Week of September 15, 2019

The key economic reports this week are August Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales.For manufacturing, August Industrial Production, and the September New York and Philly Fed surveys, will be released this week.The FOMC is expected to cut the Fed Funds rate 25bps on Wednesday, and the Fed’s Q2 Flow of…

Schedule for Week of September 15, 2019

"Mortgage Rates’ Week Goes From Bad to Worse"

From Matthew Graham at MortgageNewsDaily: Mortgage Rates’ Week Goes From Bad to WorseMortgage rates were already having their worst week since 2016 as of yesterday afternoon. Rather than help to heal some of the damage, today’s bond market momentum only made things worse. Whether we’re looking at 10yr Treasury yields…

"Mortgage Rates’ Week Goes From Bad to Worse"

Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5% to 2.0%

From Merrill Lynch: 3Q and 2Q GDP tracking remain at 2.0% qoq saar. [Sept 13 estimate]emphasis addedFrom Goldman Sachs: Following this morning’s data, we boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +2.0% (qoq ar). [Sept 13 estimate]From the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe New York Fed Staff Nowcast…

Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5% to 2.0%

Sacramento Housing in August: Sales Down 6.5% YoY, Active Inventory DOWN 22% YoY

From SacRealtor.org: Median sale price, sales volume decrease for AugustAugust ended with 1,567 sales, a 7.4% decrease from the 1,693 sales last month. Compared to the same month last year (1,676), the current figure is down 6.5%. …The Active Listing Inventory increased 1.4% from 2,425 to 2,460 units. The Months…

Sacramento Housing in August: Sales Down 6.5% YoY, Active Inventory DOWN 22% YoY

Retail Sales increased 0.4% in August

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.4 percent from July to August (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.1 percent from August 2018.From the Census Bureau report:Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not…

Retail Sales increased 0.4% in August

Friday: Retail Sales

Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for August will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in retail sales.• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for September).

Friday: Retail Sales

LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in August

Special note: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted a few years ago), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast.Container traffic…

LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in August

Early Look at 2020 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base

The BLS reported this morning:The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 1.5 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 250.112 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index was unchanged prior to seasonal adjustment.CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate…

Early Look at 2020 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base

Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Above 2% YoY in August, Core PCE below 2%

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.6% annualized rate) in August. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.2% (2.3% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI…

Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Above 2% YoY in August, Core PCE below 2%

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