Musing About Economics, Computers and Technology

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Month: January 2020 (page 1 of 11)

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate unchanged in December

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency was unchanged at 0.66% in December, from 0.66% in November. The serious delinquency rate is down from 0.76% in December 2018.These are mortgage loans that are “three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure”.  This matches last month as the…

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate unchanged in December

Q1 GDP Forecasts: 1.0% to 2.7%

From Merrill Lynch GDP growth is likely to slow to 1.0% qoq saar in 1Q 2020. [Jan 31 estimate]emphasis addedFrom the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.5% for 2020:Q1 [Jan 31 estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP…

Q1 GDP Forecasts: 1.0% to 2.7%

Q4 2019 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate

The BEA has released the underlying details for the Q4 initial GDP report this morning.The BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 10.1% annual pace in Q4.Investment in petroleum and natural gas exploration decreased in Q4 compared to Q3, and was down 19% year-over-year.Click on graph for…

Q4 2019 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate

Personal Income increased 0.2% in December, Spending increased 0.3%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for December: Personal income increased $40.7 billion (0.2 percent) in December according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $30.6 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $46.6 billion (0.3 percent).Real…

Personal Income increased 0.2% in December, Spending increased 0.3%

"Mortgage Rates Basically at Best Levels Since 2016"

From Matthew Graham at MortgageNewsDaily: Mortgage Rates Basically at Best Levels Since 2016Mortgage rates improved again today as the market continued to react to updates on the coronavirus outbreak. For top tier scenarios, the average lender is now offering rates not seen since 2016, with the slight exception of a…

"Mortgage Rates Basically at Best Levels Since 2016"

Q4 GDP: Investment

Investment was weak again in Q4, although residential investment picked up (increased at a 5.8% annual rate).The first graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the…

Q4 GDP: Investment

HVS: Q4 2019 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates

The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q4 2019. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates.  However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey.This survey might…

HVS: Q4 2019 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 216,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending January 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 216,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 12,000 from 211,000 to 223,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,500, a decrease of…

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 216,000

BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.1% Annualized Rate in Q4

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2019 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP…

BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.1% Annualized Rate in Q4

Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 215,000 initial claims, up from 211,000 last week.• At 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 2019 (Advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.1% annualized in Q4, the same…

Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims

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