Musing About Economics, Computers and Technology

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Month: December 2019 (page 1 of 10)

Lawler: US Population Growth Slowed Again in 2019

CR Note: These lower population estimates are important for projections of economic growth and housing. I mentioned this slowdown in growth earlier this month in Is the Future still Bright?From housing economist Tom Lawler: US Population Growth Slowed Again in 2019Yesterday the Census Bureau released its “Vintage 2019” estimates of…

Lawler: US Population Growth Slowed Again in 2019

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate decreased slightly in November

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased slightly to 0.66% in November, from 0.67% in October. The serious delinquency rate is down from 0.76% in November 2018.These are mortgage loans that are “three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure”.  This is the the lowest serious…

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate decreased slightly in November

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.3% year-over-year in October

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October (“October” is a 3 month average of August, September and October prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use…

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.3% year-over-year in October

Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices

Tuesday:• At 9:00 AM ET, FHFA House Price Index for October 2019. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.• Also at 9:00 AM, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for October. The consensus is for a 3.2% year-over-year increase in the National index for…

Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices

Question #4 for 2020: Will the overall participation rate start declining in 2020, or will it move more sideways (or slightly up) in 2020?

Earlier I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2020. I’m adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.4) Participation Rate: In November 2020, the overall participation rate was at 63.2%, up slightly year-over-year from 62.9% in November 2019.   The BLS is projecting the…

Question #4 for 2020: Will the overall participation rate start declining in 2020, or will it move more sideways (or slightly up) in 2020?

Chicago PMI "Rose to 48.9 in December"

Earlier from the Chicago PMI: Chicago Business Barometer™ – Rose to 48.9 in DecemberThe Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, rose 2.6 points in December, hitting a four-month high of 48.9. Business sentiment dropped by 1.2 points to 46.2 in Q4, marking the lowest quarterly reading since Q2 2009. The…

Chicago PMI "Rose to 48.9 in December"

Question #5 for 2020: How much will wages increase in 2020?

Earlier I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2020. I’m adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.5) Real Wage Growth: Wage growth was disappointing in 2019 (up 3.1% year-over-year as of November).  How much will wages increase in 2020? The most followed wage indicator is…

Question #5 for 2020: How much will wages increase in 2020?

Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Activity Expands Modestly"

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Expands ModestlyGrowth in Texas factory activity resumed in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rebounded to 3.6 after dipping into negative territory last month.Most other measures of…

Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Activity Expands Modestly"

NAR: "Pending Home Sales Expand 1.2% in November"

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Expand 1.2% in NovemberPending home sales increased in November, rebounding from the prior month’s decline, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The West region reported the highest growth last month, while the other three major U.S. regions saw only marginal variances in month-over-month…

NAR: "Pending Home Sales Expand 1.2% in November"

Monday: Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed Mfg

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of December 29, 2019Monday:• At 9:45 AM ET, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December.• At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 1.1% increase in the index.• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December. This is…

Monday: Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed Mfg

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