Musing About Economics, Computers and Technology

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Month: November 2019 (page 1 of 10)

Schedule for Week of December 1, 2019

The key report this week is the November employment report on Friday.Other key indicators include the November ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, November auto sales, and the October trade deficit.—– Monday, Dec 2nd —–10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for November.  The consensus is for 50.1%, up from 48.3%.Here is a…

Schedule for Week of December 1, 2019

November 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list Decreased to 65 Institutions

The FDIC’s official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public (just the number of banks and assets every quarter). Note: Bank CAMELS ratings are also not made public.CAMELS is the FDIC rating system, and stands…

November 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list Decreased to 65 Institutions

Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.8% to 2.0%

From Goldman Sachs: [W]e lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +2.0% (qoq ar). (qoq ar). [Nov 27 estimate]emphasis addedFrom the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 0.8% for 2019:Q4. [Nov 29 estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model estimate for…

Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.8% to 2.0%

STR: Hotel RevPAR "Upcycle Over"

From Jan Freitag at HotelNewsNow: Consecutive RevPAR dips make it official: Upcycle overLet’s look at what we know: RevPAR has now declined two months in a row—three months in the last year, and four months in the prior 13 months. Because everyone likes a record, we keep counting RevPAR growth…

STR: Hotel RevPAR "Upcycle Over"

Five Economic Reasons to be Thankful

With a Hat Tip to Neil Irwin (he started doing this several years ago) … here are five economic reasons to be thankful this Thanksgiving …1) Low unemployment rate.The unemployment rate was at 3.6% in October. The unemployment rate is down from 3.8% in October 2018 (a year ago), and…

Five Economic Reasons to be Thankful

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate decreased slightly in October

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased slightly to 0.67% in October, from 0.68% in September. The serious delinquency rate is down from 0.79% in October 2018.These are mortgage loans that are “three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure”.  This matches the delinquency rate in…

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate decreased slightly in October

Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Similar YoY Price Gains in October compared to September

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for September were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: September Case-Shiller Results and October Forecast: Steady as She GoesThe S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home…

Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Similar YoY Price Gains in October compared to September

Personal Income increased Slightly in October, Spending increased 0.3%, Core PCE increase 0.1%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for October: Personal income increased $3.3 billion (less than 0.1 percent) in October according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $12.6 billion (-0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $39.7 billion…

Personal Income increased Slightly in October, Spending increased 0.3%, Core PCE increase 0.1%

NAR: "Pending Home Sales Decline 1.7% in October"

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Decline 1.7% in OctoberPending home sales retreated in October, taking a slight step back after two prior months of increases, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The Northeast experienced a minor uptick last month, but the other three major U.S. regions reported declines…

NAR: "Pending Home Sales Decline 1.7% in October"

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 213,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending November 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 227,000 to 228,000. The 4-week moving average was 219,750, a decrease of…

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 213,000

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