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Month: October 2019 (page 1 of 11)

Friday: Employment Report, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending

Note: It appears temporary Census hiring will have little impact on the October employment report.My October Employment Preview: Take the UnderFriday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for October.   The consensus is for 93,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 3.6%.Note: The GM strike and…

Friday: Employment Report, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate increased slightly in September

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency increased slightly to 0.68% in September, from 0.68% in August. The serious delinquency rate is down from 0.82% in September 2018.These are mortgage loans that are “three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure”.  The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate…

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate increased slightly in September

October Employment Preview: Take the Under

Special Notes on GM Strike and Decennial Census: The GM strike has ended, but 48,000 workers were on strike during the BLS reference week. There was probably some spillover to suppliers and others – and the strike will probably reduce October employment by close to 75,000 jobs. The strike is…

October Employment Preview: Take the Under

Q3 2019 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate

The BEA has released the underlying details for the Q3 initial GDP report.The BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 15.3% annual pace in Q3.Investment in petroleum and natural gas exploration decreased in Q3 compared to Q2, and was down 16% year-over-year.Click on graph for larger image.The first…

Q3 2019 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate

Personal Income increased 0.3% in September, Spending increased 0.2%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for September: Personal income increased $50.2 billion (0.3 percent) in September according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $55.7 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $24.3 billion (0.2 percent).Real…

Personal Income increased 0.3% in September, Spending increased 0.2%

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 218,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending October 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 218,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 212,000 to 213,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,750, a decrease of…

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 218,000

Thursday: Personal Income & Outlays, Unemployment Claims

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 215,000 initial claims, up from 212,000 last week.• Also at 8:30 AM, Personal Income and Outlays for September. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2%…

Thursday: Personal Income & Outlays, Unemployment Claims

Q3 GDP: Investment

Investment was weak again in Q3, although residential investment picked up (increased at a 5.1% annual rate).The first graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the…

Q3 GDP: Investment

BEA: Real GDP increased at 1.9% Annualized Rate in Q3

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2019 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the third quarter of 2019, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.0…

BEA: Real GDP increased at 1.9% Annualized Rate in Q3

ADP: Private Employment increased 125,000 in October

From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 125,000 jobs from September to October according to the October ADP National Employment Report®. … The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in tota … The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the…

ADP: Private Employment increased 125,000 in October

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